Since ChatGPT’s launch, jobs have shrunk and stocks have surged. But is AI really to blame? – livemint.com
Since November 2022, when ChatGPT launched, it promised productivity and agility — but what if it’s rewriting the economy instead? A widely circulated chart based on this assumption has sparked intense debate about the state of the American economy.
The chart, nicknamed as the “scariest chart in the world,” has claimed that since the OpenAI chatbot’s debut, the S&P 500 has surged more than 70% while job openings have plummeted roughly 30%.
While, this divergence suggests that artificial intelligence has split the economy, enriching investors while leaving workers behind. But journalist Derek Thompson, who wrote about this chart in his Substack last Thursday, argues the reality is far more complex., pointing to several economic factors at play beyond just AI, Fortune reported.
The primary driver behind the decline in job postings is not the debut of ChatGPT three years back, but the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Job openings actually peaked earlier, at 11.5 million in March 2022, the same month the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has climbed from around 3,840 in November 2022 to around 6,688 by September 2025, representing a gain of approximately 74% over that period.
The Fed approved a quarter-percentage-point increase on March 16, 2022, its first hike in more than three years, launching a campaign that would eventually see 11 rate increases through July 2023. This move made borrowing more expensive, which naturally suppressed spending and investment, leading to low hiring across the board.
By September 2025, the Fed had started cutting rates to revive a slowing labor market and prevent unemployment from climbing., Fortune reported.
Beyond interest rates, other policies have contributed to the tight labor market. Trade policy and immigration policies enforced under the Trump administration, including tariffs and immigration crackdown have increased business costs and reduced labor force growth, further limiting job creation.
A study from the National Foundation for American Policy estimated these immigration policies could reduce the US workforce by 15 million people over the next decade and cut annual economic growth by nearly one-third, the news report said.
While job openings cooled, the stock market, especially AI-related stocks soared. According to JPMorgan, AI stocks accounted for the vast majority (75%) of S&P 500 returns and 80% of earnings growth since November 2022.
The bank estimated that 30 AI-related companies now make up about 44% of the S&P 500’s total value, generating approximately $5 trillion in wealth gains for US households over the past year.
This rally was driven by major tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. Some of these companies, including Meta, laid off employees even as their stock prices climbed. This concentration had led to bubble concerns with the so-called “Magnificent Seven stocks” representing more than one-third of the S&P 500 index, a level of concentration that exceeds even the dotcom era.
AI has already began reshaping parts of the job market, particularly for those early in their careers. Research from Stanford University found that since the widespread adoption of generative AI, workers aged between 22 and 25, in the most AI-exposed occupations have seen employment decline by roughly 13%. Meanwhile, jobs in less exposed fields and more experienced workers in the same occupations remained stable or even continued to grow, Fortune said in the news report.
JPMorgan research noted the unemployment rate among college graduates reached 5.8% in March 2024, the highest in more than four years, and has been inching above the aggregate. While the trend could reflect other factors, AI effects may also be at play, according to Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan.
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