NFL Week 4 predictions by Microsoft Copilot AI for every game – USA Today
Microsoft Copilot AI has now gone 11-5 in back-to-back weeks in its USA TODAY Sports-assisted efforts to pick the winner of every game during the 2025 NFL season.
The AI chatbot got tripped up by some of the surprise results from Week 3. The Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers all dropped games in which they were favored, and Copilot had picked all three to win.
However elsewhere, Copilot did well to sniff out the San Francisco 49ers’ win over the Arizona Cardinals and the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ victory against the Houston Texans.
Can Copilot continue its success in NFL Week 4? USA TODAY Sports decided to continue the experiment to see if the chatbot could break its record of 11 wins in a single week.
Per usual, the process of collecting Copilot’s picks was simple. The AI chatbot was prompted to pick a result for each of the 16 Week 4 matchups. The basic form of the query used to generate the results was as follows:
The appropriate matchups were swapped into the prompt as it was repeated to generate the AI chatbot’s picks for each of the 16 games.
Copilot typically was able to interpret the prompt with ease. But on occasion, it produced outdated or incorrect information, which wasn’t overly surprising, as some Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to keep up with the latest sports news and updates.
When that happened, Copilot was prompted to fix the errors and reassess the prompt.
Below is a summation of Copilot’s picks for Week 4, along with a brief, human-crafted analysis of each of the chatbot’s answers.
AI’s take: Copilot likes that Seattle’s offense “is clicking with Sam Darnold” and expressed concerns about whether Arizona’s offense would find as much success with James Conner sidelined. It also noted the Cardinals have struggled against the pass and are dealing with injuries in their secondary that could make this a tough matchup.
Our take: Darnold is Pro Football Focus‘ No. 1-graded quarterback through three weeks, so backing him against a banged-up Cardinals defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards to quarterbacks (826) makes sense. Darnold is also easily the best quarterback the Cardinals have faced thus far this year after matchups with Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young and Mac Jones to open the season.
AI’s take: Copilot criticized Aaron Rodgers for his “inconsistent” play thus far in 2025 and implied his matchup with a Vikings defense allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game would be difficult. The chatbot also lauded Carson Wentz for a strong debut as Minnesota’s starter and expressed optimism about Justin Jefferson‘s contributions.
Our take: The Vikings forced Rodgers into three interceptions when they faced off last season, so Brian Flores’ stop unit should have the upper hand in this one. So long as Wentz can perform steadily, Minnesota should improve to 2-0 without J.J. McCarthy.
AI’s take: Copilot isn’t worried about Jayden Daniels‘ status for this game after Marcus Mariota proved “more than capable” of leading Washington’s offense in Week 3. The chatbot is also discouraged by Atlanta’s “stagnant” offense and expressed concerns that the Commanders, who are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry through three weeks, could limit Bijan Robinson.
Our take: This is a sensible pick by Copilot. Until Michael Penix Jr. can show more consistency at quarterback, it’s hard to trust the Falcons to go blow-for-blow with a talented offense like the one the Commanders sport.
AI’s take: Copilot expects Buffalo to blow out the Saints. It noted Josh Allen‘s strong position and ability to avoid turnovers entirely in its analysis. Additionally, it noted that Buffalo ranks No. 1 overall in EPA per play this season, giving the Bills a significant advantage over the “banged up and disorganized” Saints.
Our take: The Saints just lost by 31 points to the Seahawks and their road matchup with the Bills won’t be any easier. Copilot may be giving the Saints a bit too much credit projecting just a 20-point loss.
AI’s take: Copilot was impressed by the Lions‘ win over the Ravens while remaining skeptical of the Browns’ Week 3 upset of the Packers. It predicted David Montgomery to have another strong game against Cleveland while pointing out Browns quarterback Joe Flacco‘s struggles and 30th-ranked PFF grade.
Our take: Copilot might be a bit optimistic in projecting Montgomery to have another big game against a Browns defense that has limited opposing running backs, a group that includes Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs, to a paltry 2.2 yards per carry. Still, it’s hard to argue against Detroit having the better offensive firepower, even if the result could be closer than the chatbot is projecting.
AI’s take: Copilot isn’t reading too much into the Panthers’ blowout win over the Falcons. It noted Carolina was “outgained and benefited from three turnovers” in the contest while expressing concern about whether the Panthers’ protection in front of Bryce Young will hold up in this matchup.
Our take: It’s hard to argue with Copilot’s analysis that this is a “prime bounce-back spot” for the Patriots. That said, New England committed five turnovers last week and saw its running backs lose three fumbles. If the Patriots can’t get their running game to play a mistake-free game, it may be harder than expected for Drake Maye to carry their offense to victory against a team that has allowed a league-low two total touchdowns to quarterbacks.
AI’s take: Jaxson Dart is making his first career start for the Giants, but Copilot doesn’t have high expectations for him against “a top-10 defense led by Derwin James.” The AI chatbot likes Justin Herbert‘s chances of exploiting a “vulnerable” Giants defense as well.
Our take: It’s hard to argue with Copilot here. Backing a rookie starter making his debut for an 0-3 team against a top-tier, Jesse Minter-coached defense doesn’t seem like a good move.
AI’s take: Copilot opined the Eagles have “looked more complete” than the Buccaneers amid the teams’ respective 3-0 starts. It lauded Jalen Hurts‘ efficiency while questioning whether Baker Mayfield would continue his “hot start” sans Mike Evans (hamstring) and with numerous injuries to Tampa Bay’s offensive line.
Our take: Copilot is right to be concerned about the Buccaneers’ offensive line injuries, but if Tristan Wirfs can return, that may change the calculus in this one. It’s also worth noting the Buccaneers are 4-1 straight up against the Eagles with Todd Bowles on their staff, so if the veteran coach’s pressure schemes can rattle Hurts, Tampa Bay could pull off the upset.
AI’s take: Copilot hasn’t been impressed by either quarterback in this game, but it believes C.J. Stroud is “more stable” than Titans rookie Cam Ward. The chatbot was particularly concerned about Ward taking 15 sacks through three weeks and opined this was likely to be “a low-scoring, grind-it-out AFC South battle.”
Our take: It doesn’t sound like Copilot is very excited for this game, and neither are we. Expecting a low-scoring win for the Texans after a surprising 0-3 start is sensible. However, it will be interesting to see how the Titans offense looks with Bo Hardegree calling plays instead of Brian Callahan.
AI’s take: Copilot highlighted this as “one of the most competitive games of the week.” It believes the Colts are “legit” amid Daniel Jones‘ “resurgence,” but thinks the Rams have a slight edge in this contest at home.
Our take: Both of these teams sport well-balanced offenses, but the Colts have barely punted or turned the ball over through three weeks. If the Rams can’t find a bit more success stopping Jones and Jonathan Taylor, the Colts could find a way to win this one.
AI’s take: Copilot seems down on the Jaguars’ passing offense, noting Trevor Lawrence‘s 55.8% completion rate and the team’s rank of 21st overall in EPA per passing play as reasons to be cautious of the Jaguars. The AI chatbot also expressed hope Brock Purdy might return in Week 4, which would provide a boost for the 49ers amid the team’s injury woes.
Our take: The Jaguars certainly haven’t been inspiring, so backing the 49ers makes sense. Copilot’s prediction of Christian McCaffrey being a “difference-maker” also seems likely to occur, even if it is low-hanging fruit.
AI’s take: Will the Ravens or the Chiefs fall to 1-3 to start the season? Copilot believes the Chiefs are the more likely team to retain a losing record, noting Kansas City’s “disjointed” offense and the fact that Patrick Mahomes has “struggled against Baltimore recently.”
Our take: Copilot may be underplaying the loss of Nnamdi Madubuike, without whom the Ravens gave up 426 total yards and 38 points to the Lions on “Monday Night Football” in Week 3. And while the Chiefs haven’t looked good, they showed signs of offensive life late against the Giants. The Ravens are a different beast, but don’t count Andy Reid’s squad out of this one.
AI’s take: Copilot is buying Caleb Williams‘ breakout against the Cowboys, during which he threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns with a 142.6 passer rating. It believes Williams will “continue his momentum” against a “vulnerable” Raiders defense while Las Vegas’ offensive “inconsistency” will prevent the Raiders from keeping pace.
Our take: Williams’ big game came against the Cowboys, who have allowed a league-high 900 passing yards to quarterbacks and have generally struggled without Micah Parsons. The Raiders are a slightly better defense but still don’t have the talent needed to fully contain Ben Johnson’s offense.
AI’s take: Copilot noted Green Bay’s pass rush “has been effective despite blitzing at a low rate,” a nod to the impact Micah Parsons has made since joining the squad. The chatbot also pointed out Dallas was shut out in the second half of its loss to the Bears while anticipating the Cowboys could struggle against the Packers’ top-ranked scoring defense.
Our take: This is a revenge game of sorts for Parsons, no matter how much he wants to downplay it, so expect the Packers to bring their A-game for this one. Dallas’ defense should have trouble containing Jordan Love and Co., so Green Bay could post a lot of points.
AI’s take: Copilot is not a fan of the Dolphins defense, noting its last-place ranking among NFL scoring defenses (32.3 points per game) and the fact the team hasn’t yet created a turnover. That said, the chatbot noted its preference for the “steady, veteran presence” of Tyrod Taylor over Justin Fields at quarterback for the Jets. If Fields (concussion) plays, Copilot noted it might switch its pick to the Dolphins.
Our take: If Copilot is confident in Taylor taking advantage of Miami’s porous defense, it should probably feel the same about Fields, who comes with greater rushing upside. But hey, to each their own!
AI’s take: Denver’s defense is “likely to overwhelm” Cincinnati’s offensive line, in Copilot’s estimation. It expressed little confidence in the Bengals’ offense and noted the team in general is “performing like a bottom-five team” with its last-ranked mark in offensive EPA per play.
Our take: Bo Nix hasn’t been great for the Broncos, but this is his easiest matchup to date. Add in Denver’s defensive advantage and the Broncos could have a chance to hand the Bengals a second consecutive ugly loss as they continue to look for an identity without Joe Burrow.
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